A balanced view places Jayud Global Logistics (NASDAQ: JYD) in a wide 2025–2026 outcome band, with external scenario averages near $1.16 for 2025 and $2.74 for 2026, cross‑checked against revenue history and valuation multiples to gauge what re‑rating would require operationally. From a current micro‑cap base near $0.15 and a one‑year drawdown of roughly 81%, any path to those averages needs both revenue execution and market multiple expansion, which is possible but highly volatile for a China‑based logistics small cap with a 1‑year beta above 4.
Company snapshot and current trading
Jayud is a cross‑border logistics provider offering freight forwarding, supply‑chain management, and value‑added services with operations centered in China and Hong Kong and a listing on NASDAQ under ticker JYD. Recent snapshots show a share price in the ~$0.145–$0.17 range, market capitalization around $20–24 million, negative trailing EPS, and high price volatility relative to peers. TradingView and Wise summaries indicate FY revenue of roughly $78.5 million USD equivalent and trailing net income around –$6.9 million USD, highlighting the growth‑with‑losses profile typical of micro‑caps under margin pressure. The stock has fallen about 81% over the past year, with an all‑time high of $10 on April 21, 2023, underscoring the scale of the multi‑year drawdown ahead of any recovery attempt.
Growth and downfall: revenue history (CNY) and rates
Reported revenue (company files in CNY) shows rapid growth in 2021–2022, a contraction in 2023, and a rebound in 2024 to 565.27 million CNY (+13.54% YoY). The five‑year CNY revenue series is: 2020 290.33M, 2021 545.59M, 2022 651.99M, 2023 497.87M, 2024 565.27M, which reconciles to ~$78.5M USD in 2024 at contemporaneous FX rates used by major platforms. This trajectory frames a boom‑slowdown‑rebound cycle that must be stabilized to justify sustained multiple expansion into 2026.
Annual growth rates derived from the same CNY series confirm the volatility: 2021 +87.92%, 2022 +19.50%, 2023 –23.64%, 2024 +13.54%. The 2023 contraction and 2024 rebound are consistent with broader air cargo demand whipsaw post‑pandemic and e‑commerce normalization, with Jayud’s own statements citing 2024 strength in air cargo volumes as a tailwind backdrop. Sustaining low‑teens+ growth into 2026 would likely require continued execution in U.S. corridors and deeper international user/customer activation as indicated in corporate updates.
Price performance context
From the April 2023 all‑time high of $10 to recent prints around $0.145, JYD has experienced a severe de‑rating that makes the base for any percentage rebound mechanically small in absolute terms. One‑year performance sits near –81% with a 52‑week low close to $0.09, placing the equity firmly in high‑volatility territory where thin liquidity can amplify daily price swings well beyond fundamentals. This backdrop is crucial when interpreting large percentage external forecasts; micro‑cap mechanics can drive extreme variance around new information and capital raises through 2026.
External price scenarios for 2025 and 2026
A third‑party forecast set places 2025 scenarios at Low $0.0016, Average $1.1631, High $2.3246, and 2026 scenarios at Low $0.44, Average $2.7385, High $5.0369, illustrating very wide bands for a micro‑cap with limited visibility. Monthly 2025 projections from the same source also show high dispersion, reinforcing that model variance is extreme at penny‑level starting points. These are not company targets; they are external statistical scenarios that should be paired with fundamental cross‑checks before sizing decisions.
Valuation cross‑check: 2026 EV at P/S multiples
To ground scenarios, it is useful to translate plausible 2026 revenue paths into implied equity values using simple P/S multiples relative to Jayud’s 2024 revenue base in USD terms. Using 2024 revenue ≈ $78.5M USD, define 2026 revenue cases as Flat ($78.5M), Base (+10% CAGR for two years ≈ $94.7M) influenced by IATA‑reported 11.9% YoY air cargo demand as a sector context, and Bull (+20% CAGR two years ≈ $113.1M) for a strong recovery case. Applying P/S 0.5/1.0/1.5 gives implied equity values of roughly $39M/$79M/$118M for Flat, $47M/$95M/$142M for Base, and $57M/$113M/$170M for Bull, indicating 2–7× market‑cap uplift potential if both revenue scales and the market re‑rates toward logistics peer multiples.
Price targets derived from cross‑check (illustrative logic)
With market cap around $20–24M and 2024 revenue around $78.5M, the current P/S is roughly 0.25–0.30, which is below the 1.2× sector sales multiple quoted broadly for industrials on some platforms, though direct comps vary by sub‑industry and geography. If Jayud grows to ~$95M revenue by 2026 (Base) and re‑rates to P/S 1.0, implied equity value would be ~$95M, which is about 4× the ~$23.8M snapshot market cap—an outcome that would still require margin stabilization and steady execution through 2026. If growth stalls at ~$78.5M and P/S remains ~0.3, upside is limited absent idiosyncratic catalysts, whereas a Bull path at ~$113M and P/S 1.5 could imply ~$170M equity value, but that presumes strong execution plus broad risk‑on appetite for China logistics exposure.
Operating and sector catalysts
Jayud’s 2024–2025 updates emphasize air freight and e‑commerce demand strength, referencing IATA’s 11.9% YoY growth for Feb 2024 as supportive of air cargo lanes the company serves. The firm publicized integration of acquired logistics technology (HYTX) with customs systems in the U.S. and China, aiming at efficiency and higher‑margin cross‑border throughput over time. A high reported one‑year beta (~4.31) and YoY revenue contraction in 2023 highlight that macro and China‑specific factors could dominate the near‑term tape, even if fundamentals improve sequentially.
Risks and what to watch
Key risks include margin pressure in competitive freight lanes, FX and cross‑border friction, and financing risks common to micro‑caps when market conditions tighten, all of which can overwhelm incremental improvements in quarterly revenue prints. Watch for steady quarterly revenue cadence, gross‑margin stabilization, and opex discipline to validate any re‑rating toward sector‑level P/S multiples into 2026, alongside contract wins or corridor expansions that lift volume visibility. Persistent high volatility and liquidity gaps in the micro‑cap segment necessitate conservative sizing and ongoing recalibration as new filings and operating updates arrive.
Conclusion: Jayud Global stock prediction 2025–2026
External scenarios center near ~$1.16 (2025) and ~$2.74 (2026) with very wide bands, which from today’s ~$0.15 base imply large percentage moves that can only be rationalized by a combination of revenue scale‑up and multiple expansion in a high‑volatility micro‑cap equity. A fundamentals cross‑check suggests that achieving ~$95M revenue by 2026 and re‑rating toward P/S 1.0 would imply roughly 4× equity value from current market cap, while a stronger growth and multiple case could be higher, but both paths require clearer evidence of sustained execution.